Fractured/Earth

Reportage on a planet without equitable or sustainable development.

July 13, 2026

Why the Modi Government’s Insistence on Importing Expensive Natural Gas Makes No Sense. Part 2 of 4.

By 2020, India’s energy targets had stopped making sense.
Going by the National Democratic Alliance’s projections, India’s oil demand would double by 2030. In the same period, coal production would more than double and gas demand would almost treble. That was just the start. It also projected a five-fold rise in India’s renewable energy capacity by 2030; a 55% jump in hydel-power generation by 2030; and said all three-wheelers would go electric by 2023; all two-wheelers by 2025, and a third of all cars by 2030. Thereafter, it also promised to treble India’s nuclear power capacity by 2032.
These targets left sectoral experts scratching their heads. Could India double its oil consumption while converting all two-wheelers, all three-wheelers, and a third of all four-wheelers to electric – not to mention road transport minister Nitin Gadkari’s ethanol push? How fast would India’s economy (already hit by demonetisation and the Goods and Services Tax) have to grow to absorb all this energy?
Such contradictions were new. Under the United Progressive Alliance, documents like the Integrated Energy Policy set out the balance India needed to strike across fossil fuels, nuclear and renewables to meet diverse developmental objectives (high economic growth/low carbon emissions/energy independence). Under the National Democratic Alliance, however, that changed. “There is no comprehensive thinking in this government,” a former finance secretary had told me in 2020.“No one thinks 20 years ahead. Every ministry is pretty much working on its own.”
For anyone trying to understand India’s response to the energy crisis, this incoherence is a good starting point. It has saddled India with two major consequences.
One, with the Modi government simultaneously backing fossil fuels and renewables, price – not policy – came to shape India’s energy transition. With that, as the third and fourth parts of this series will show, the country’s decarbonisation slowed. Two, these bullish projections for oil, gas and coal demand turned India into the last big market for global fossil fuel majors. As they lobbied for market access, India got locked into imported fuels it didn’t even need.
Natural gas illustrates the second point to perfection.

Out today, the second part of our series on how poor decision-making heightened India’s vulnerability during the Iran war. This one talks about Tellurian and more. Do read.

Capital, Politics, Society

NDA, BJP, Energy, Tellurian, LPG

Posted by:

m rajshekhar

Reviews

“…une plongée dans les failles béantes de la démocratie indienne, un compte rendu implacable du dysfonctionnement des Etats fédérés, minés par la corruption, le clientélisme, le culte de la personnalité des élus et le capitalisme de connivence. (…a dive into the gaping holes in Indian democracy, a relentless account of the dysfunction of the federated states, undermined by corruption, clientelism, the cult of the personality of elected officials and crony capitalism).” Le Monde

“…a critical enquiry into why representative government in India is flagging.” Biblio

“…strives for an understanding of the factors that enable governments and political parties to function in a way that is seemingly hostile to the interests of the very public they have been elected to serve, a gross anomaly in an electoral democracy.” Scroll.in

“M. Rajshekhar’s deeply researched book… holds a mirror to Indian democracy, and finds several cracks.” The Hindu

“…excels at connecting the local to the national.” Open

“…refreshingly new writing on the play between India’s dysfunctional democracy and its development challenges…” Seminar

“A patient mapping and thorough analysis of the Indian system’s horrific flaws…” Business Standard (Image here)

“33 മാസം, 6 സംസ്ഥാനങ്ങൾ, 120 റിപ്പോർട്ടുകൾ: ജനാധിപത്യം തേടി മഹത്തായ ഇന്ത്യൻ യാത്ര… (33 months, 6 states, 120 reports: Great Indian journey in search of democracy…)” Malayala Manorama

“Hindustan ki maujooda siyasi wa maaashi soorat e hal.” QindeelOnline

“What emerges is the image of a state that is extractive, dominant, casteist and clientelist.” Tribune

“…reporting at its best. The picture that emerges is of a democracy that has been hijacked by vested interests, interested only in power and pelf.” Moneycontrol.com

Book lists

“Ten best non-fiction books of the year“, The Hindu.

“Twenty-One Notable Books From 2021“, The Wire.

“What has South Asia been reading: 2021 edition“, Himal Southasian

Interviews

“Journalism is a social enterprise…,” Booksfirst.in.

“Democratic decay at state level: Journalist M Rajshekhar on book ‘Despite the State’,” The News Minute.

“Covid-19 en Inde : “des décès de masse” dont un “État obscurantiste est responsable,” Asialyst.

Allusions/Mentions

“JP to BJP: The Unanswered Questions“.
Mahtab Alam’s review of “JP to BJP: Bihar After Lalu and Nitish”.

“Urban History of Atmospheric Modernity in Colonial India“. Mohammad Sajjad’s review of “Dust and Smoke: Air Pollution and Colonial Urbanism, India, c1860-c1940”.

“Westland closure: Titles that are selling fast and a few personal recommendations,” by Chetana Divya Vasudev, Moneycontrol. (Because this happened too. In February, a year after DtS was released, Amazon decided to shutter Westland, which published the book. The announcement saw folks rushing to buy copies of Westland books before stocks run out.)

“Time to change tack on counterinsurgency” by TK Arun, The Federal.

“All Things Policy: The Challenges of Governing States” by Suman Joshi and Sarthak Pradhan, Takshashila Institute (podcast).

“The Future of Entertainment“, Kaveree Bamzai in Open.

“On What India’s Watching“, Prathyush Parasuraman on Substack.

“The puppeteers around us“, Karthik Venkatesh in Deccan Herald.

“Will TN election manifestos continue ‘populist’ welfare schemes?“, Anna Isaac for The News Minute.

“Why wages-for-housework won’t help women“, V Geetha in Indian Express.

“The poor state of the Indian state“, Arun Maira in The Hindu.

Book discussions

14 April, 2024: The costs of political corruption, Bangalore International Centre.

27 May, 2023: Safe Spaces/Why Indians live despite the state. TEDx Bangalore.

12 November, 2022: Stop Loss: Overcoming the systemic failures of the Indian State. Tata Literature Festival, Mumbai.

26 December, 2021: Rangashankara, Bangalore, a discussion with Dhanya Rajendran.

16 November: Rachna Books, Gangtok, a discussion with Pema Wangchuk.

29 August: Books In The Time of Chaos, with Ujwal Kumar.

21 May: Hyderabad Lit Fest with Kaveree Bamzai and Aniruddha Bahal.

28 March: Paalam Books, Salem, Tamil Nadu.

19 March: The News Minute, “Citizens, the State, and the idea of India“

6 March: Pen@Prithvi, with Suhit Kelkar

20 February: A discussion between scholars Usha Ramanathan, Tridip Suhrud, MS Sriram and me to formally launch Despite the State.

6 February: DogEars Bookshop, Margoa.

5 February: The Polis Project, Dispatches with Suchitra Vijayan.

30 January: Founding Fuel, “Systems Thinking, State Capacity and Grassroots Development“.

25 January: Miranda House Literary Society