Can India create an atmanirbhar EV manufacturing chain?

July 21, 2023

Can India create an atmanirbhar EV manufacturing chain?

And so, how is India’s search for atmanirbharta in critical minerals unfolding?

As this series has shown, it’s impossible to give a categorical answer to that question. Too many pieces of this puzzle—geopolitics, India’s capacity to source critical minerals supplies, local demand for end-use applications like battery components—are in a state of flux.

Between recycling, domestic exploration, the mineral security partnership, and India’s own outreach to countries like Australia, the country seems to have multiple pathways for securing its critical mineral supplies.

And yet, take a closer look and questions emerge. While working on this report, CarbonCopy was told by an industry observer on the condition of anonymity that many manufacturers do not want to stray beyond their core functions of manufacturing and engineering into the messy world of critical mineral mining. And so, will private companies want their own mines or will they be happier with an intermediary—KABIL or global traders like Glencore—supplying critical minerals to them?

There are other questions. Does KABIL have the resources (staffing, budgets and diplomatic support) to compete with other countries? How is India placed vis-a-vis critical minerals’ refining technologies? How will the Mineral Security Partnership work—and what will be India’s role within that? What parts of the manufacturing chain will come to India? As the sole developing country in the partnership—one with lax environmental regulation, additionally—might India end up the most polluting parts?

And then, there are the questions that surround demand. Can India create enough demand—across renewables, grid storage, EVs—to create an indigenous manufacturing sector that absorbs these critical minerals? Without that, firms will keep importing components—and the country’s dependence on other nations will remain.

And so, how are the firms which won the PLI for rechargeable batteries faring? How fast will the market for EVs grow? Unlike steel which, threatened by measures like carbon border taxes, is going green, India’s automotive cluster is still unsure how rapidly the domestic market will decarbonise. It wants to invest cautiously. Caution, however, comes with its own risks. As other countries— especially those with booming EV markets—invest in batteries and battery components, the minimum viable scale for plants is rising fast.

Hardwired into all this is also the question of technology. Will Indian units sourcing technology through joint ventures or developing it inhouse as scrappy startups be globally competitive? How will the entry of firms like BYD (even with a local JV partner) and Tesla change this landscape? EVs might get a boost with these firms’ entry but how much of their supply chain will they localise?

India’s search for critical minerals is no ordinary puzzle. It’s a puzzle with shape-shifting pieces.

one function of journalism is to introduce complexity and nuance into simplistic narratives. that is what this series on critical minerals does. more than anything else, i think, its primarily utility lies in flagging sharper questions we should all be asking — as opposed to cheering MoUs and mineral discoveries in the country.

Also see this: my twitter thread on the series.

Capital, Ecology, Politics

Critical minerals, Energy Transition, EVs, Kabil

Posted by:

m rajshekhar

Reviews

“…une plongée dans les failles béantes de la démocratie indienne, un compte rendu implacable du dysfonctionnement des Etats fédérés, minés par la corruption, le clientélisme, le culte de la personnalité des élus et le capitalisme de connivence. (…a dive into the gaping holes in Indian democracy, a relentless account of the dysfunction of the federated states, undermined by corruption, clientelism, the cult of the personality of elected officials and crony capitalism).” Le Monde

“…a critical enquiry into why representative government in India is flagging.” Biblio

“…strives for an understanding of the factors that enable governments and political parties to function in a way that is seemingly hostile to the interests of the very public they have been elected to serve, a gross anomaly in an electoral democracy.” Scroll.in

“M. Rajshekhar’s deeply researched book… holds a mirror to Indian democracy, and finds several cracks.” The Hindu

“…excels at connecting the local to the national.” Open

“…refreshingly new writing on the play between India’s dysfunctional democracy and its development challenges…” Seminar

“A patient mapping and thorough analysis of the Indian system’s horrific flaws…” Business Standard (Image here)

“33 മാസം, 6 സംസ്ഥാനങ്ങൾ, 120 റിപ്പോർട്ടുകൾ: ജനാധിപത്യം തേടി മഹത്തായ ഇന്ത്യൻ യാത്ര… (33 months, 6 states, 120 reports: Great Indian journey in search of democracy…)” Malayala Manorama

“Hindustan ki maujooda siyasi wa maaashi soorat e hal.” QindeelOnline

“What emerges is the image of a state that is extractive, dominant, casteist and clientelist.” Tribune

“…reporting at its best. The picture that emerges is of a democracy that has been hijacked by vested interests, interested only in power and pelf.” Moneycontrol.com

Book lists

“Ten best non-fiction books of the year“, The Hindu.

“Twenty-One Notable Books From 2021“, The Wire.

“What has South Asia been reading: 2021 edition“, Himal Southasian

Interviews

“Journalism is a social enterprise…,” Booksfirst.in.

“Democratic decay at state level: Journalist M Rajshekhar on book ‘Despite the State’,” The News Minute.

“Covid-19 en Inde : “des décès de masse” dont un “État obscurantiste est responsable,” Asialyst.

Allusions/Mentions

“JP to BJP: The Unanswered Questions“.
Mahtab Alam’s review of “JP to BJP: Bihar After Lalu and Nitish”.

“Urban History of Atmospheric Modernity in Colonial India“. Mohammad Sajjad’s review of “Dust and Smoke: Air Pollution and Colonial Urbanism, India, c1860-c1940”.

“Westland closure: Titles that are selling fast and a few personal recommendations,” by Chetana Divya Vasudev, Moneycontrol. (Because this happened too. In February, a year after DtS was released, Amazon decided to shutter Westland, which published the book. The announcement saw folks rushing to buy copies of Westland books before stocks run out.)

“Time to change tack on counterinsurgency” by TK Arun, The Federal.

“All Things Policy: The Challenges of Governing States” by Suman Joshi and Sarthak Pradhan, Takshashila Institute (podcast).

“The Future of Entertainment“, Kaveree Bamzai in Open.

“On What India’s Watching“, Prathyush Parasuraman on Substack.

“The puppeteers around us“, Karthik Venkatesh in Deccan Herald.

“Will TN election manifestos continue ‘populist’ welfare schemes?“, Anna Isaac for The News Minute.

“Why wages-for-housework won’t help women“, V Geetha in Indian Express.

“The poor state of the Indian state“, Arun Maira in The Hindu.

Book discussions

14 April, 2024: The costs of political corruption, Bangalore International Centre.

27 May, 2023: Safe Spaces/Why Indians live despite the state. TEDx Bangalore.

12 November, 2022: Stop Loss: Overcoming the systemic failures of the Indian State. Tata Literature Festival, Mumbai.

26 December, 2021: Rangashankara, Bangalore, a discussion with Dhanya Rajendran.

16 November: Rachna Books, Gangtok, a discussion with Pema Wangchuk.

29 August: Books In The Time of Chaos, with Ujwal Kumar.

21 May: Hyderabad Lit Fest with Kaveree Bamzai and Aniruddha Bahal.

28 March: Paalam Books, Salem, Tamil Nadu.

19 March: The News Minute, “Citizens, the State, and the idea of India“

6 March: Pen@Prithvi, with Suhit Kelkar

20 February: A discussion between scholars Usha Ramanathan, Tridip Suhrud, MS Sriram and me to formally launch Despite the State.

6 February: DogEars Bookshop, Margoa.

5 February: The Polis Project, Dispatches with Suchitra Vijayan.

30 January: Founding Fuel, “Systems Thinking, State Capacity and Grassroots Development“.

25 January: Miranda House Literary Society

Fractured/Earth